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Moving Forward to '17-'18


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#276 DucksScore

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 02:51 PM

 
Eaves isnt scoring like that again this year. At least I dont have faith that he will. But ok, lets say Eaves scores 20 for us instead of his 11 last year. Lets say Perry goes from 19 to 25 goals. That would add 9 more goals from Eaves and 6 more from Perry. 15 more goals. Not bad. Not great. Now you can try and make the argument that Perry will score 11 more goals and Eaves is that 30 goal guy and then you've made up your scoring completely, but I dont buy into that.
 
I dont buy 82 games from Eaves. Look at the stats. Look at his track record. Guys. Please. Dont expect 82 games and 32 goals out of this guy. 
I dont buy 30 goals from Perry. He might bounce back a bit, but I dont expect a full resurrection. He will be a 25/30 guy. 55 points.
 
So in my scenario, were 15 goals short. Trade Vats, were 18 goals short. But now we have Montour for a full season so maybe he makes up for that? Lets not forget we are missing Kesler. How many more goals will that be? See where this gets really messed up? We can borrow and add goals all over the place. Simplest thing for me is to look at the goals we had last year and just play off of that because some guys will score more, some will score less and some are gone completely.
 
And ok, you are pushing a 2nd liner to 3rd line. Who is our 2nd line right now? You are pushing a 4th liner off the team... ok BYE 3 goal scorer.
 
Whats our lineup like right now?
 

Eaves-Getzlaf-Perry
Cogliano-Rakell-Silfverberg 
Ritchie-Vermette-Kase
Sabourin-Rasmussen-Wagner 
 
So you are telling me a lineup of
 
JVR-Getzlaf-Eaves
Ritchie-Rakell-Perry
Cogs-Vermette-Silfver
Kase-Rasmuss-Wagner
 
That lineup doesnt score more? Shuffle the deck however you want but Ill take that every day of the week and it will score more goals, without question.
 
And aain, its hard to say what top 6 wingers are out there and available because I dont have a phone to pickup and call other GMs. WHo knows if certain teams have given up on some guys just for the sake of shaking things up or cap crunches. Neal. JVR. Doucher. Kane. Mantha/Nyquist/Tater. Skinner. I dont know who else, but I doubt the list ends there.


The Ducks' playoff capabilities is all I'm talking about so the fact that we'll lose production from Kesler during the regular season while he is out is of no consequence to me and is of no consequence to this discussion of scoring in the playoffs. As far as I'm concerned Kesler will be on the roster come playoff time as will Lindholm and Vats (barring any trade).

Neither of us can say with any certainty what Perry will do this year. It all depends on what was the real and/or major cause of his poor play last season. Absent his poor play from last season it would be completely reasonable to think Perry could score 30 goals give or take (25-35 goals).

So was Perry's poor play last season all due to an aging veteran, all due to a season long injury he played thru or a combination of both. Assuming Perry is now 100% healthy from what was ailing him, we will definitely find out this season. If I was to guess, and this is completely a guess, I'd say that at worst it was a combination of both and at best mostly due to his injury.

Why do I give Perry more of the benefit of the doubt? Because his previous 9 seasons performance did not show any kind of a dramatic drop off in scoring like last season. It was an anomaly way outside the norm.

Although in counter to my own argument, Perry's poor performance seemed to have actually begun during the 2016 playoffs and then continued into the 2016- 2017 regular season.

#277 RGS_Quack93

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:16 PM

The Ducks' playoff capabilities is all I'm talking about so the fact that we'll lose production from Kesler during the regular season while he is out is of no consequence to me and is of no consequence to this discussion of scoring in the playoffs. As far as I'm concerned Kesler will be on the roster come playoff time as will Lindholm and Vats (barring any trade).

Neither of us can say with any certainty what Perry will do this year. It all depends on what was the real and/or major cause of his poor play last season. Absent his poor play from last season it would be completely reasonable to think Perry could score 30 goals give or take (25-35 goals).

So was Perry's poor play last season all due to an aging veteran, all due to a season long injury he played thru or a combination of both. Assuming Perry is now 100% healthy from what was ailing him, we will definitely find out this season. If I was to guess, and this is completely a guess, I'd say that at worst it was a combination of both and at best mostly due to his injury.

Why do I give Perry more of the benefit of the doubt? Because his previous 9 seasons performance did not show any kind of a dramatic drop off in scoring like last season. It was an anomaly way outside the norm.

Although in counter to my own argument, Perry's poor performance seemed to have actually begun during the 2016 playoffs and then continued into the 2016- 2017 regular season.

 

Fine, even if I were concede most/all of that to you, does my proposed lineup not look better and put up more points than our current roster? Does the roster that I put together not have a better chance int he playoffs? Does it not look much more like a Cup winning team than our current setup?



#278 DucksScore

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:21 PM

 
Fine, even if I were concede most/all of that to you, does my proposed lineup not look better and put up more points than our current roster? Does the roster that I put together not have a better chance int he playoffs? Does it not look much more like a Cup winning team than our current setup?


You are missing Kesler in both of your lineups.

Show your two alternate lineups for the playoffs, not to start the regular season so I can respond appropriately.

I already clearly said that trading Vats for the right player can improve the team. What I disagreed with was such a player (based on our cap contraints and based on a realistic trade) single handedly changing us from a top 12 team to a solid Cup winning team.

#279 RGS_Quack93

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:46 PM

Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg 
Ritchie-Vermette-Perry
Kase-Rasmussen-Wagner 
 

 
JVR-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogs-Kesler-Silfver

Ritchie-Rakell-Perry
Ritchie-Vermette-Kase



#280 DucksScore

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:07 PM

Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg 
Ritchie-Vermette-Perry
Kase-Rasmussen-Wagner 
 
JVR-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogs-Kesler-Silfver
Ritchie-Rakell-Perry
Ritchie-Vermette-Kase


I think you meant Wagner on the 4th line for the 2nd roster unless Ritchie is doing double duty.

Sure this would be a definite improvement. It would add that top 6 LW we've needed for several years. Would it make us better?; yes. I'm not disputing that at all. Would it move us from a top 12 to a definite Cup winning team?; I don't necessarily think so. Would it improve our playoff chances?; yes (assuming chemistry is there not only for JVR but also for the new line combos). But we are only debating (disagreeing) here in our opinions as to the "degree" of improvement to the team and our playoff chances not whether or not we would improve.

Would TOR move JVR? Who knows. I do think they'll wait for the trade deadline to both see where they at (if they are buyers or sellers) and to get a better return. But I just don't think BM can wrestle a trade with TOR right now for JVR.

#281 JLL

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:14 PM

JVR is a rental - UFA this summer. I wouldn't even THINK of trading Vats for a rental, and that's the only way we could afford his salary this season.



#282 RGS_Quack93

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:20 PM

I think you meant Wagner on the 4th line for the 2nd roster unless Ritchie is doing double duty.

 

 

He is going to be THAT good, just you watch



Would TOR move JVR? Who knows. I do think they'll wait for the trade deadline to both see where they at (if they are buyers or sellers) and to get a better return. But I just don't think BM can wrestle a trade with TOR right now for JVR.

 

 

JVR is a rental - UFA this summer. I wouldn't even THINK of trading Vats for a rental, and that's the only way we could afford his salary this season.

 

Im not even saying JVR is the guy. Duchene. Neal. Skinner. Tkae your pick. There are guys out there that are available if the price is right. And I largely agree, you dont trade Vats for a rental or older asset.



Sure this would be a definite improvement. It would add that top 6 LW we've needed for several years. Would it make us better?; yes. I'm not disputing that at all. Would it move us from a top 12 to a definite Cup winning team?; I don't necessarily think so. Would it improve our playoff chances?; yes (assuming chemistry is there not only for JVR but also for the new line combos). But we are only debating (disagreeing) here in our opinions as to the "degree" of improvement to the team and our playoff chances not whether or not we would improve.
 

 

Definite Cup winning team? Those dont exist. But a move like that absolutely makes a drastic difference in our odds. if you think were a top 12 team now, Id say it makes us a top 4 team



#283 DucksScore

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:35 PM

He is going to be THAT good, just you watch

Im not even saying JVR is the guy. Duchene. Neal. Skinner. Tkae your pick. There are guys out there that are available if the price is right. And I largely agree, you dont trade Vats for a rental or older asset.
 
Definite Cup winning team? Those dont exist. But a move like that absolutely makes a drastic difference in our odds. if you think were a top 12 team now, Id say it makes us a top 4 team


I believe I was quoting your assessment of our team currently as only a top 12 team right now.

#284 RGS_Quack93

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:42 PM

I believe I was quoting your assessment of our team currently as only a top 12 team right now.

 

fair enough. If I think they are a top 12 team right now, Id say it makes us a top 4 team.

 

Vegas odds have us as a top 8 team currently but I think teams like DAL, NSH, MTL, CBJ and NYR are being slept on a bit. 



#285 DucksScore

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:01 PM

 
fair enough. If I think they are a top 12 team right now, Id say it makes us a top 4 team.
 
Vegas odds have us as a top 8 team currently but I think teams like DAL, NSH, MTL, CBJ and NYR are being slept on a bit. 


Assuming a fully healthy team, I'm more in line with us currently being a top 8 playoff team than a top 12 team.

#286 DucksScore

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:14 PM

For all the angst earlier this year about losing Camarossa via being claimed off of waivers, today apparently CGY released Camarossa from his PTO.




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