Eaves isnt scoring like that again this year. At least I dont have faith that he will. But ok, lets say Eaves scores 20 for us instead of his 11 last year. Lets say Perry goes from 19 to 25 goals. That would add 9 more goals from Eaves and 6 more from Perry. 15 more goals. Not bad. Not great. Now you can try and make the argument that Perry will score 11 more goals and Eaves is that 30 goal guy and then you've made up your scoring completely, but I dont buy into that.
I dont buy 82 games from Eaves. Look at the stats. Look at his track record. Guys. Please. Dont expect 82 games and 32 goals out of this guy.
I dont buy 30 goals from Perry. He might bounce back a bit, but I dont expect a full resurrection. He will be a 25/30 guy. 55 points.
So in my scenario, were 15 goals short. Trade Vats, were 18 goals short. But now we have Montour for a full season so maybe he makes up for that? Lets not forget we are missing Kesler. How many more goals will that be? See where this gets really messed up? We can borrow and add goals all over the place. Simplest thing for me is to look at the goals we had last year and just play off of that because some guys will score more, some will score less and some are gone completely.
And ok, you are pushing a 2nd liner to 3rd line. Who is our 2nd line right now? You are pushing a 4th liner off the team... ok BYE 3 goal scorer.
Whats our lineup like right now?
So you are telling me a lineup of
That lineup doesnt score more? Shuffle the deck however you want but Ill take that every day of the week and it will score more goals, without question.
And aain, its hard to say what top 6 wingers are out there and available because I dont have a phone to pickup and call other GMs. WHo knows if certain teams have given up on some guys just for the sake of shaking things up or cap crunches. Neal. JVR. Doucher. Kane. Mantha/Nyquist/Tater. Skinner. I dont know who else, but I doubt the list ends there.
The Ducks' playoff capabilities is all I'm talking about so the fact that we'll lose production from Kesler during the regular season while he is out is of no consequence to me and is of no consequence to this discussion of scoring in the playoffs. As far as I'm concerned Kesler will be on the roster come playoff time as will Lindholm and Vats (barring any trade).
Neither of us can say with any certainty what Perry will do this year. It all depends on what was the real and/or major cause of his poor play last season. Absent his poor play from last season it would be completely reasonable to think Perry could score 30 goals give or take (25-35 goals).
So was Perry's poor play last season all due to an aging veteran, all due to a season long injury he played thru or a combination of both. Assuming Perry is now 100% healthy from what was ailing him, we will definitely find out this season. If I was to guess, and this is completely a guess, I'd say that at worst it was a combination of both and at best mostly due to his injury.
Why do I give Perry more of the benefit of the doubt? Because his previous 9 seasons performance did not show any kind of a dramatic drop off in scoring like last season. It was an anomaly way outside the norm.
Although in counter to my own argument, Perry's poor performance seemed to have actually begun during the 2016 playoffs and then continued into the 2016- 2017 regular season.